Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -3300 NCAT +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +25 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -22.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -17.1 (+7.9) | 146.3 (+16.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -17.1 (+7.9) | 147.6 (+15.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -18.2 (+6.8) | 147.1 (+15.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -17.7 (+7.3) | 146.8 (+16.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 4-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#96) | -12.6 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#35) | -1.98 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#47) | -2.89 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#44) | 0.400 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 58.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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