Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
| Money | ARK -600 UNCW +430 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +16 | 196 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -5.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (+45.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -4.8 (+11.2) | 149.6 (+46.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -5.9 (+10.1) | 149.5 (+46.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -5.4 (+10.6) | 150.9 (+45.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -5.3 (+10.7) | 151.1 (+44.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-2 |
| Away | 2-7 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#95) | 3.7 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#96) | 1.70 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#97) | 1.78 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#111) | 0.548 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 12.4% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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