Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | WEB -700 MTST +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WEB +22 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | WEB -13.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (+19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WEB -9.3 (+12.7) | 136.4 (+13.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -11.7 (+10.3) | 136.1 (+13.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -11.8 (+10.2) | 136.6 (+13.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -12.1 (+9.9) | 137.4 (+12.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WEB 82 – 79 MTST |
| Jan 25, 2026 | MTST 91 – 88 WEB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MTST 74 – 66 WEB |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTST 80 – 71 WEB |
| Mar 11, 2024 | MTST 91 – 82 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WEB | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#78) | -2.5 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#111) | -0.42 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#84) | -0.24 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#134) | 0.466 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WEB | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 18.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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