Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Under |
| Money | MIZ -4000 CARK +1450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +33 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -20.3 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -19.0 (+14.0) | 148.9 (+2.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -15.3 (+17.7) | 146.9 (+4.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -16.7 (+16.3) | 148.8 (+2.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -16.9 (+16.1) | 149.3 (+1.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 0-18 | 5-11 |
| Home | 6-11 | 5-10 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L19 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 80.3 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#120) | -12.7 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#106) | -2.84 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#83) | -3.52 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#116) | 0.358 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.