Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Over |
| Money | MSU -455 INST +345 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +12 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -5.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -6.0 (+6.0) | 149.9 (+12.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -5.2 (+6.8) | 147.4 (+14.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -5.7 (+6.3) | 146.9 (+15.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -6.7 (+5.3) | 150.5 (+11.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#18) | 13.3 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#87) | 2.62 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#63) | 3.07 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#126) | 0.591 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 52.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 61.7% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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