Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | USF -2500 ALST +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +3 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | USF -13.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -12.4 (-9.4) | 144.6 (-1.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -11.8 (-8.8) | 140.3 (+2.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -11.8 (-8.8) | 140.1 (+2.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -11.9 (-8.9) | 144.8 (-1.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#127) | -6.1 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#210) | -0.46 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#194) | -0.53 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#209) | 0.509 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 35.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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