Betting Lines
| Spread | MINN -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MINN -1200 ME +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MINN -13.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MINN -12.3 (+5.7) | 137.7 (+4.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MINN -13.9 (+4.1) | 138.0 (+4.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MINN -13.4 (+4.6) | 137.7 (+4.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MINN -14.4 (+3.6) | 137.9 (+4.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 16-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#75) | -2.1 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#139) | -0.39 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#118) | -0.49 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#163) | 0.457 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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