Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -29.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +37 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -27.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -23.1 (+13.9) | 158.2 (+16.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -24.1 (+12.9) | 159.9 (+15.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -26.8 (+10.2) | 159.3 (+15.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -27.4 (+9.6) | 158.1 (+16.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 82.6 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#12) | -7.2 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#57) | -0.50 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#43) | -1.01 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#51) | 0.462 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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