You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
Carver-Hawkeye Arena · December 30, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread IOWA -17.5 Home covered
O/U 166.0 Over
Money IOWA -2000 / NIU +1050
Model Predictions
Spread Total IOWA win
Actual IOWA +29 177 Won
Massey IOWA -16.1 (+12.9) — —
Massey Totals — 169.8 (+7.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 73% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 83% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ IOWA -16.3 (+12.7) 164.8 (+12.2) 88% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML IOWA -14.0 (+15.0) 161.3 (+15.7) 87% ✓
Baseline ML IOWA -14.3 (+14.7) 162.5 (+14.5) 87% ✓
Baseline Plus ML IOWA -14.8 (+14.2) 164.9 (+12.1) 86% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 13, 2020 IOWA 106 – 53 NIU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings IOWA NIU
Overall 19-15 11-20
Conference 10-10 5-13
Home 14-4 5-9
Away 4-9 5-11
Neutral 1-2 1-0
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 W1
Avg Pts For 83.1 71.4
Avg Pts Against 79.4 79.2
Massey 10.5 (#46) -1.1 (#185)
Bradley-Terry 0.55 (#130) 0.48 (#136)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.98 (#116) 0.50 (#147)
RPI 0.530 (#125) 0.543 (#105)
Shooting & Four Factors IOWA NIU
FG% 47.7% 45.4%
3PT% 33.5% 33.5%
REB / G 39.2 35.2
OREB / G 11.7 9.3
AST / TO 1.96 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.9% 51.7%
TOV% 13.3% 16.9%
ORB% 31.0% 26.6%
FT Rate 25.9% 29.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.1% 51.3%
Opp TOV% 17.8% 12.5%
DRB% 69.7% 67.3%
Opp FT Rate 18.5% 20.4%

Game Analysis

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