Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -31.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
| Money | IOWA -7000 NIU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +53 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -38.4 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -24.3 (+28.7) | 157.3 (+1.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -24.7 (+28.3) | 155.2 (+3.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -33.6 (+19.4) | 155.1 (+3.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -36.6 (+16.4) | 153.5 (+5.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | IOWA 103 – 74 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 3-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 2-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 2-7 |
| Away | 6-4 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.7 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 17.1 (#7) | -15.3 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#43) | -4.09 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#36) | -6.21 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#77) | 0.320 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.40 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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