Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -150 NIA +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +6 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -2.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -3.2 (-9.2) | 140.9 (-8.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -1.4 (-7.4) | 143.2 (-11.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -0.9 (-6.9) | 144.4 (-12.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -0.6 (-6.6) | 144.6 (-12.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 11-9 |
| Home | 2-13 | 5-9 |
| Away | 2-11 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#338) | -10.0 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.68 (#357) | -2.25 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.14 (#357) | -2.97 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#330) | 0.394 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 24.3% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 28.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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