Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | USD -110 FRES +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +4 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | USD -5.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -6.3 (-10.3) | 142.8 (-4.8) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USD -4.8 (-8.8) | 141.9 (-3.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -4.6 (-8.6) | 143.3 (-5.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -3.8 (-7.8) | 142.5 (-4.5) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2024 | FRES 73 – 65 USD |
| Dec 2, 2021 | FRES 63 – 43 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-6 | 7-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#212) | -3.7 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#142) | -0.92 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#166) | -1.13 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#138) | 0.450 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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