Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | FRES -215 USD +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +8 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -8.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -5.8 (+2.2) | 144.4 (-6.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -6.2 (+1.8) | 143.5 (-5.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -5.7 (+2.3) | 142.5 (-4.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -5.7 (+2.3) | 147.1 (-9.1) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | FRES 71 – 67 USD |
| Dec 2, 2021 | FRES 63 – 43 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 6-27 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 2-16 |
| Home | 5-9 | 5-13 |
| Away | 1-14 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#278) | -10.2 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#264) | -2.58 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#256) | -2.58 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#296) | 0.363 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.4% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.