Hop in my Chrysler, it's as big as a whale and it's about to set sail. "Love Shack" - The B-52's
Save Mart Center · December 15, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread FRES -5.5 Home covered
O/U 153.5 Under
Money FRES -215 / USD +180
Model Predictions
Spread Total FRES win
Actual FRES +8 138 Won
Massey FRES -8.5 (-0.5)
Massey Totals 147.9 (-9.9)
Bradley-Terry 91%
Weighted B-T 89%
Baseline Plus ML FRES -5.8 (+2.2) 144.4 (-6.4) 74%
Baseline ML FRES -6.2 (+1.8) 143.5 (-5.5) 70%
Baseline Tuned ML FRES -5.7 (+2.3) 142.5 (-4.5) 71%
Efficiency Plus ML FRES -5.7 (+2.3) 147.1 (-9.1) 72%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 30, 2023 FRES 7167 USD
Dec 2, 2021 FRES 6343 USD

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FRES USD
Overall 6-26 6-27
Conference 2-18 2-16
Home 5-9 5-13
Away 1-14 0-12
Neutral 0-3 1-2
Last 5 0-5 1-4
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 70.7 70.2
Avg Pts Against 80.7 80.2
Massey -6.0 (#278) -10.2 (#328)
Bradley-Terry -1.06 (#264) -2.58 (#343)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.39 (#256) -2.58 (#318)
RPI 0.426 (#296) 0.363 (#350)
Shooting & Four Factors FRES USD
FG% 38.5% 39.7%
3PT% 26.9% 26.6%
REB / G 37.8 34.4
OREB / G 11.7 10.6
AST / TO 0.79 0.84
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 43.4% 44.7%
TOV% 16.9% 20.1%
ORB% 27.0% 27.5%
FT Rate 23.8% 22.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.9% 50.8%
Opp TOV% 20.2% 20.7%
DRB% 66.8% 67.6%
Opp FT Rate 16.6% 25.2%

Game Analysis

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