Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +20 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -4.1 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -5.6 (+14.4) | 126.9 (-20.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -4.5 (+15.5) | 130.1 (-24.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -4.3 (+15.7) | 127.7 (-21.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -4.8 (+15.2) | 126.5 (-20.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2024 | FRES 73 – 65 USD |
| Dec 30, 2023 | FRES 71 – 67 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.6 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#167) | 2.2 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#96) | -0.21 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#94) | 0.61 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#150) | 0.441 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 81.0% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 13.3% |
Game Analysis
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