Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -16.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | RICH -1600 LAF +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +21 | 97 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -22.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (-33.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -15.9 (+5.1) | 133.3 (-36.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -18.5 (+2.5) | 135.7 (-38.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -19.6 (+1.4) | 135.2 (-38.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -18.3 (+2.7) | 135.7 (-38.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 5-10 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#86) | -12.1 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#163) | -3.30 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#144) | -4.58 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#207) | 0.400 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 11.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 18.3% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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