Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | IDST +175 MONT -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +8 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | MONT -1.8 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -1.9 (-6.1) | 137.5 (+6.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -2.4 (-5.6) | 140.8 (+3.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -1.9 (-6.1) | 141.1 (+2.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -2.3 (-5.7) | 140.7 (+3.3) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | IDST 73 – 69 MONT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MONT 69 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MONT 81 – 68 IDST |
| Jan 19, 2025 | IDST 86 – 62 MONT |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MONT 72 – 58 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-13 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#267) | 0.7 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#317) | 0.40 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#298) | 0.71 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#344) | 0.579 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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