Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | VCU -650 GWEB +460 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -13.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (+24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -13.7 (+0.3) | 139.6 (+20.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -13.6 (+0.4) | 139.1 (+20.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -14.2 (-0.2) | 140.5 (+19.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -14.1 (-0.1) | 140.9 (+19.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-14 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-5 |
| Home | 13-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#84) | -2.9 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#149) | -0.79 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#121) | -1.42 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#144) | 0.445 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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