Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ECU -400 ETSU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +16 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | ECU -5.6 (-21.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -4.7 (-20.7) | 134.3 (+21.7) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -4.5 (-20.5) | 135.2 (+20.8) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -4.8 (-20.8) | 135.6 (+20.4) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -5.0 (-21.0) | 136.4 (+19.6) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-9 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#194) | -2.7 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#230) | 0.49 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#211) | 0.39 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#262) | 0.524 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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