Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -455 LIB +345 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +45 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -9.6 (+35.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -6.8 (+38.2) | 153.0 (+4.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -5.8 (+39.2) | 153.2 (+3.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -6.9 (+38.1) | 152.6 (+4.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -6.1 (+38.9) | 151.2 (+5.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2022 | ALA 95 – 59 LIB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.1 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 18.9 (#6) | 9.3 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#66) | 1.78 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#49) | 2.33 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#40) | 0.573 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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