Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC +120 AMER -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +2 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -0.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -0.7 (-2.7) | 152.7 (+19.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -0.0 (-2.0) | 154.3 (+17.7) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -1.2 (-3.2) | 156.2 (+15.8) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -1.4 (-3.4) | 156.7 (+15.3) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | UMBC 96 – 93 AMER |
| Nov 24, 2021 | UMBC 98 – 67 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-9 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-12 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#326) | -5.9 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#338) | -2.04 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.42 (#338) | -2.69 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.343 (#359) | 0.417 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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