Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -200 UMBC +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +3 | 189 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -4.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+37.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -3.9 (-6.9) | 147.9 (+41.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -2.8 (-5.8) | 146.8 (+42.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -4.0 (-7.0) | 147.1 (+41.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -3.6 (-6.6) | 148.5 (+40.5) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | AMER 87 – 85 UMBC |
| Nov 24, 2021 | UMBC 98 – 67 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-9 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#260) | -5.1 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#163) | -1.71 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#170) | -1.87 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#134) | 0.419 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 28.4 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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