Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | UMBC -190 AMER +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +31 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -11.2 (+19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -7.3 (+23.7) | 144.3 (+20.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -8.1 (+22.9) | 146.9 (+18.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -6.7 (+24.3) | 144.1 (+20.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -7.4 (+23.6) | 143.2 (+21.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | UMBC 96 – 93 AMER |
| Dec 30, 2023 | AMER 87 – 85 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#235) | -7.1 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#157) | -0.61 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#163) | -0.99 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#200) | 0.424 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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