Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -450 LEM +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +6 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -10.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -9.0 (-3.0) | 142.9 (+7.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | FAIR -7.0 (-1.0) | 144.4 (+5.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | FAIR -10.6 (-4.6) | 142.5 (+7.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -9.5 (-3.5) | 141.8 (+8.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2025 | FAIR 97 – 83 LEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 10-6 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#219) | -9.0 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#215) | -1.33 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#237) | -1.47 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#252) | 0.422 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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