Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | LEM +105 FAIR -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +14 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | LEM -1.9 (-15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+27.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -2.5 (-16.5) | 143.3 (+36.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -0.3 (-14.3) | 145.4 (+34.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -1.4 (-15.4) | 147.5 (+32.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -2.2 (-16.2) | 145.0 (+35.0) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | FAIR 78 – 72 LEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#245) | 0.1 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#260) | 1.87 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#267) | 3.35 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#275) | 0.593 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 41.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 78.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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