Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
Ted Grant Court · November 22, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread FAIR -1.5 Away covered
O/U 145.5 Over
Money LEM +105 / FAIR -125
Model Predictions
Spread Total LEM win
Actual FAIR +14 180 Lost
Massey LEM -1.9 (-15.9)
Massey Totals 152.2 (+27.8)
Bradley-Terry 18%
Weighted B-T 4%
Baseline Plus ML LEM -1.4 (-15.4) 147.5 (+32.5) 51%
Model 4 ML LEM -0.3 (-14.3) 145.4 (+34.6) 51%
Model 3 ML LEM -2.5 (-16.5) 143.3 (+36.7) 54%
Baseline ML LEM -2.2 (-16.2) 145.0 (+35.0) 54%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 30, 2023 FAIR 7872 LEM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LEM FAIR
Overall 15-17 21-13
Conference 10-8 11-9
Home 9-4 12-4
Away 5-12 7-8
Neutral 1-1 2-1
Last 5 1-3 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 72.3 72.9
Avg Pts Against 73.9 71.9
Massey -4.2 (#245) 0.1 (#171)
Bradley-Terry -0.96 (#260) 1.87 (#59)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.63 (#267) 3.35 (#39)
RPI 0.427 (#275) 0.593 (#75)
Shooting & Four Factors LEM FAIR
FG% 44.7% 38.8%
3PT% 35.7% 29.7%
REB / G 33.5 41.6
OREB / G 7.8 12.6
AST / TO 0.97 0.94
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.8% 44.7%
TOV% 22.9% 14.8%
ORB% 24.8% 29.3%
FT Rate 26.0% 22.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.9% 48.5%
Opp TOV% 15.0% 14.6%
DRB% 72.5% 78.4%
Opp FT Rate 22.0% 21.5%

Game Analysis

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