Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -275 SDAK +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +9 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | NDSU -9.3 (-18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (-18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -5.9 (-14.9) | 149.3 (-8.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -6.6 (-15.6) | 152.4 (-11.4) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -6.7 (-15.7) | 152.8 (-11.8) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -6.6 (-15.6) | 151.0 (-10.0) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NDSU 89 – 84 SDAK |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NDSU 84 – 61 SDAK |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 84 NDSU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NDSU 82 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NDSU 103 – 77 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 5-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-11 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 81.5 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#221) | -7.6 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#192) | -1.19 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#195) | -1.70 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#153) | 0.419 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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