Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | TNTC +160 UTM -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +8 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | UTM -4.7 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -4.9 (-3.1) | 156.2 (-2.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -3.6 (-4.4) | 156.4 (-2.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -3.7 (-4.3) | 154.2 (-0.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -3.0 (-5.0) | 155.8 (-1.8) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UTM 64 – 49 TNTC |
| Dec 20, 2025 | UTM 86 – 62 TNTC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | UTM 70 – 67 TNTC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | TNTC 71 – 66 UTM |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TNTC 89 – 85 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-8 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-13 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#330) | -1.2 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#309) | -0.04 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#315) | -0.23 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#299) | 0.504 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 18.0% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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