Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -35.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +50 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | SF -37.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -25.5 (+24.5) | 132.0 (+2.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -25.4 (+24.6) | 130.3 (+3.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -35.6 (+14.4) | 129.0 (+5.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -38.7 (+11.3) | 128.3 (+5.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 1-30 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 1-17 |
| Home | 14-2 | 1-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 0-22 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 55.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#52) | -23.1 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#75) | -2.68 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#68) | -3.65 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#57) | 0.446 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 39.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 26.0% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 59.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 60.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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