Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +27 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -36.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (-23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -23.7 (+3.3) | 161.7 (-28.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -25.5 (+1.5) | 158.2 (-25.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -31.8 (-4.8) | 154.9 (-21.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -32.2 (-5.2) | 157.6 (-24.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 12-4 |
| Home | 16-0 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 22.8 (#4) | -9.1 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.01 (#4) | -2.80 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.58 (#2) | -3.88 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.718 (#1) | 0.362 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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