I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
Alumni Hall (Navy) · December 30, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread NAVY -3.0 Home covered
O/U 138.0 Over
Money NAVY -145 / W&M +122
Model Predictions
Spread Total NAVY win
Actual NAVY +12 142 Won
Massey NAVY -8.3 (+3.7)
Massey Totals 143.9 (-1.9)
Bradley-Terry 58%
Weighted B-T 55%
Baseline Plus ML NAVY -5.3 (+6.7) 140.7 (+1.3) 75%
Efficiency Plus ML NAVY -5.8 (+6.2) 141.0 (+1.0) 72%
Baseline Tuned ML NAVY -5.9 (+6.1) 140.9 (+1.1) 71%
Baseline ML NAVY -6.6 (+5.4) 141.7 (+0.3) 78%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 29, 2024 W&M 8276 NAVY
Nov 8, 2022 NAVY 7459 W&M
Dec 2, 2021 NAVY 7556 W&M

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NAVY W&M
Overall 13-18 10-23
Conference 8-10 4-14
Home 10-5 7-7
Away 3-13 2-13
Neutral 0-0 1-3
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 65.6 68.5
Avg Pts Against 67.8 74.2
Massey -3.7 (#242) -7.5 (#296)
Bradley-Terry -2.53 (#340) -1.92 (#320)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.35 (#333) -2.49 (#318)
RPI 0.380 (#347) 0.376 (#350)
Shooting & Four Factors NAVY W&M
FG% 37.8% 44.3%
3PT% 25.7% 35.1%
REB / G 36.4 32.0
OREB / G 12.3 8.0
AST / TO 0.95 1.11
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 42.3% 52.9%
TOV% 17.9% 16.2%
ORB% 31.2% 23.7%
FT Rate 22.2% 28.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.5% 55.2%
Opp TOV% 22.2% 14.2%
DRB% 70.7% 72.5%
Opp FT Rate 30.4% 26.5%

Game Analysis

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