Betting Lines
| Spread | W&M -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | W&M -360 NAVY +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +6 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | W&M -11.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -7.8 (-1.8) | 153.2 (+4.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | W&M -8.2 (-2.2) | 153.3 (+4.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -9.1 (-3.1) | 154.9 (+3.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -9.0 (-3.0) | 154.9 (+3.1) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | NAVY 77 – 65 W&M |
| Nov 8, 2022 | NAVY 74 – 59 W&M |
| Dec 2, 2021 | NAVY 75 – 56 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#235) | -11.0 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#265) | -3.07 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#230) | -3.96 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#293) | 0.319 (#364) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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