Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +19 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -27.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -23.6 (-4.6) | 130.8 (+0.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -19.1 (-0.1) | 129.3 (+1.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -20.8 (-1.8) | 131.3 (-0.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -22.4 (-3.4) | 130.0 (+1.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | W&M 82 – 76 NAVY |
| Dec 30, 2023 | NAVY 77 – 65 W&M |
| Nov 8, 2022 | NAVY 74 – 59 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-6 | 4-10 |
| Away | 11-5 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.8 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#42) | -12.3 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#29) | -3.96 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.72 (#26) | -5.91 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#28) | 0.309 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 25.1% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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