Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -700 LONG +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -12.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -11.5 (-2.5) | 139.6 (+7.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -12.4 (-3.4) | 139.2 (+7.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -11.4 (-2.4) | 138.6 (+8.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -12.4 (-3.4) | 137.1 (+9.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#41) | 3.5 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#20) | 0.83 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.79 (#19) | 0.55 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#15) | 0.496 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 41.8% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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