Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -16.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | JOES -2000 L-MD +1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +41 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -21.1 (+19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -16.6 (+24.4) | 138.5 (+14.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -18.3 (+22.7) | 136.3 (+16.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -20.0 (+21.0) | 135.3 (+17.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -20.0 (+21.0) | 135.8 (+17.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 2-11 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#67) | -8.7 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#48) | -3.11 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#39) | -4.50 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#75) | 0.380 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.