Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -440 LIP +335 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +3 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -7.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -5.0 (-8.0) | 148.1 (+4.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -6.1 (-9.1) | 144.5 (+8.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -6.0 (-9.0) | 143.7 (+9.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -5.8 (-8.8) | 146.5 (+6.5) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2021 | FSU 97 – 60 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-5 |
| Home | 10-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#100) | 1.3 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#155) | 0.28 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#146) | 0.32 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#101) | 0.516 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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