Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +37 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -14.6 (+22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -17.2 (+19.8) | 146.0 (+11.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -13.1 (+23.9) | 147.0 (+10.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -13.8 (+23.2) | 147.0 (+10.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -14.9 (+22.1) | 147.1 (+9.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | LIP 78 – 75 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#80) | -4.1 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#147) | -0.78 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#138) | -1.24 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#108) | 0.471 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 17.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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