Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -31.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +45 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -30.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -24.9 (+20.1) | 152.3 (+12.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -22.5 (+22.5) | 151.2 (+13.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -24.9 (+20.1) | 150.1 (+14.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -23.9 (+21.1) | 149.2 (+15.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 6-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#21) | -11.8 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#33) | -3.08 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#26) | -4.65 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#21) | 0.379 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.