But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
Dean E. Smith Center · December 30, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -31.5 Home covered
O/U 151.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNC win
Actual UNC +45 165 Won
Massey UNC -30.0 (+15.0) — —
Massey Totals — 151.9 (+13.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 100% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UNC -24.9 (+20.1) 152.3 (+12.7) 91% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UNC -22.5 (+22.5) 151.2 (+13.8) 90% ✓
Baseline ML UNC -24.9 (+20.1) 150.1 (+14.9) 91% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UNC -23.9 (+21.1) 149.2 (+15.8) 90% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNC CHSO
Overall 29-8 10-20
Conference 17-3 6-10
Home 14-1 7-7
Away 8-2 3-12
Neutral 7-5 0-1
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 81.9 64.0
Avg Pts Against 70.5 74.5
Massey 13.8 (#21) -11.8 (#339)
Bradley-Terry 2.18 (#33) -3.08 (#351)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.37 (#26) -4.65 (#355)
RPI 0.619 (#21) 0.379 (#348)
Shooting & Four Factors UNC CHSO
FG% 45.7% 41.2%
3PT% 36.1% 31.7%
REB / G 37.7 30.2
OREB / G 11.0 7.9
AST / TO 1.30 0.75
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.1% 46.8%
TOV% 14.4% 19.2%
ORB% 30.5% 23.5%
FT Rate 34.6% 25.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.1% 52.3%
Opp TOV% 17.5% 13.6%
DRB% 72.2% 67.0%
Opp FT Rate 20.2% 26.0%

Game Analysis

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