Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
| Money | SJU -420 HOF +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +5 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -5.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -4.9 (+0.1) | 140.8 (+22.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -5.2 (-0.2) | 140.7 (+22.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -5.1 (-0.1) | 141.3 (+21.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -4.5 (+0.5) | 141.6 (+21.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#43) | 5.1 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#83) | 0.77 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#80) | 1.05 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#66) | 0.554 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 42.0% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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