You scumbag, you maggot, you cheap lousy faggot "Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
Rupp Arena · December 30, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UK -21.0 Home covered
O/U 150.0 Over
Money UK -2800 / ILST +1250
Model Predictions
Spread Total UK win
Actual UK +26 166 Won
Massey UK -20.7 (+5.3) — —
Massey Totals — 149.1 (+16.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 95% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 98% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UK -20.2 (+5.8) 148.4 (+17.6) 89% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UK -17.5 (+8.5) 148.3 (+17.7) 89% ✓
Baseline ML UK -18.8 (+7.2) 147.4 (+18.6) 89% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UK -18.7 (+7.3) 147.8 (+18.2) 88% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UK ILST
Overall 23-10 15-17
Conference 13-5 9-11
Home 14-4 10-6
Away 7-3 4-8
Neutral 2-3 1-3
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 89.0 66.2
Avg Pts Against 79.7 68.0
Massey 14.1 (#19) -2.2 (#210)
Bradley-Terry 2.20 (#32) 0.08 (#170)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.90 (#35) 0.15 (#171)
RPI 0.601 (#36) 0.482 (#208)
Shooting & Four Factors UK ILST
FG% 49.7% 42.0%
3PT% 41.4% 27.7%
REB / G 38.2 36.5
OREB / G 10.2 10.7
AST / TO 1.96 0.85
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.5% 47.3%
TOV% 12.9% 19.1%
ORB% 28.1% 30.3%
FT Rate 20.2% 29.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.2% 47.7%
Opp TOV% 19.5% 19.0%
DRB% 74.2% 73.4%
Opp FT Rate 21.6% 22.3%

Game Analysis

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