Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -21.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
| Money | UK -2800 ILST +1250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +26 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | UK -20.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -20.2 (+5.8) | 148.4 (+17.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -17.5 (+8.5) | 148.3 (+17.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -18.8 (+7.2) | 147.4 (+18.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -18.7 (+7.3) | 147.8 (+18.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#19) | -2.2 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#32) | 0.08 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#35) | 0.15 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#36) | 0.482 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.96 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.