Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -21.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -7000 QUIN +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +25 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -18.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -17.4 (+7.6) | 157.7 (+11.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -16.5 (+8.5) | 157.1 (+11.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -17.2 (+7.8) | 156.8 (+12.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -16.8 (+8.2) | 158.1 (+10.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | QUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#34) | -2.2 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#63) | 0.13 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#58) | -0.20 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#59) | 0.474 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | QUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 45.1 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 16.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 41.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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