Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
| Money | TEX -1400 UNCG +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +35 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -11.9 (+23.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-39.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -12.7 (+22.3) | 142.1 (-33.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -12.2 (+22.8) | 145.2 (-36.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -12.7 (+22.3) | 144.6 (-35.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -13.6 (+21.4) | 145.8 (-36.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#63) | 0.9 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#56) | 0.73 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#53) | 1.00 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#76) | 0.531 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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