Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -305 SDSU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +10 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -4.2 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -5.8 (-15.8) | 146.1 (+11.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -5.5 (-15.5) | 144.5 (+13.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -5.1 (-15.1) | 143.5 (+14.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -4.9 (-14.9) | 146.5 (+11.5) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2024 | GONZ 80 – 67 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#35) | 12.2 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#40) | 2.79 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#34) | 3.54 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#61) | 0.671 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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