Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU +475 GONZ -750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +13 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -19.9 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -10.1 (-2.9) | 140.9 (+6.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -13.2 (+0.2) | 138.9 (+8.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -7.8 (-5.2) | 143.9 (+3.1) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | SDSU 84 – 74 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#204) | 25.3 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#158) | 2.54 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#172) | 4.29 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#61) | 0.829 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 53.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 43.3 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 2.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 61.0% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 12.4% |
| ORB% | 17.9% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.0% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.1% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 79.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.1% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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