Betting Lines
| Spread | Pick'em Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
| Money | OHIO -105 DAV -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +3 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | DAV -3.9 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -3.6 (+0.6) | 139.6 (+1.4) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -4.3 (+1.3) | 142.1 (-1.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -4.9 (+1.9) | 141.3 (-0.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -4.1 (+1.1) | 140.8 (+0.2) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#183) | 2.9 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#255) | 1.28 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#249) | 1.48 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#279) | 0.555 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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