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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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77–23 on winners spread MAE 10.0 100 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Eastern Kentucky @ Purdue	+35.8	156.4	100%	53–80	✓
Illinois State @ Kentucky	+20.5	148.1	97%	70–96	✓
Radford @ Clemson	+15.6	140.0	92%	58–93	✓
Charlotte @ Stetson	-1.7	136.1	44%	75–79	✗
Northern Illinois @ Iowa	+16.3	170.2	93%	74–103	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+12.3	152.0	87%	60–73	✓
Evansville @ Cincinnati	+13.4	156.2	89%	58–76	✓
Niagara @ Buffalo	+3.2	149.4	62%	69–63	✗
East Tennessee State @ East Carolina	+5.0	135.8	67%	86–70	✗
McNeese @ Michigan	+3.9	149.9	64%	87–76	✗
Alabama State @ South Florida	+13.1	140.2	88%	70–73	✓
Maine @ Minnesota	+12.7	136.4	88%	62–80	✓
Loyola Maryland @ Saint Joseph's	+20.8	132.7	97%	56–97	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ UCF	+21.0	139.5	97%	54–98	✓
American University @ UMBC	+1.4	166.9	55%	87–85	✗
LSU New Orleans @ Stephen F. Austin	+13.9	152.8	90%	51–80	✓
South Carolina State @ Nebraska	+24.3	151.5	99%	62–91	✓
Charleston Southern @ North Carolina	+30.1	151.6	100%	60–105	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Texas	+11.5	147.7	85%	37–72	✓
Kent State @ Saint Mary's	+9.8	141.2	81%	46–66	✓
UNC Asheville @ UAB	+4.0	151.8	64%	85–90	✓
Robert Morris @ Milwaukee	+1.8	157.4	56%	75–78	✓
Northwestern State @ LSU	+23.5	147.6	98%	55–96	✓
Jackson State @ Northwestern	+16.0	141.9	93%	63–74	✓
Denver @ Omaha	-3.8	157.3	36%	95–80	✓
St. Thomas @ North Dakota	-1.2	132.4	46%	70–45	✓
Oral Roberts @ Kansas City	-1.3	149.4	45%	60–77	✗
South Dakota @ North Dakota State	+9.2	159.5	80%	75–66	✗
Washington State @ Utah	+8.4	148.6	78%	58–80	✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville	+6.3	132.5	72%	58–67	✓
Southern Indiana @ Southeast Missouri State	+1.2	132.3	55%	91–93	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Illinois	+32.6	163.4	100%	71–104	✓
San Diego State @ Gonzaga	+3.7	144.6	63%	84–74	✗
Washington @ Colorado	+8.3	166.9	77%	69–73	✓
Utah Valley @ Boise State	+12.9	132.6	88%	63–85	✓
Fresno State @ San Diego	+6.1	143.6	71%	71–67	✗
Tarleton State @ Loyola Marymount	+6.3	133.7	72%	79–66	✗
Arizona @ California	-22.4	164.8	2%	100–81	✓
Arizona State @ Stanford	+6.7	143.7	73%	76–73	✗
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse	-2.4	143.7	41%	73–81	✗
Virginia @ Notre Dame	-9.1	107.8	21%	54–76	✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Delaware State	-2.6	147.9	41%	73–77	✗
William & Mary @ Navy	+7.8	143.5	76%	65–77	✓
Stonehill @ Rutgers	+24.7	132.5	99%	58–59	✓
Hofstra @ St. John's	+5.7	146.2	70%	79–84	✓
Lipscomb @ Florida State	+7.9	147.5	76%	78–75	✗
Northeastern @ Rhode Island	-0.1	148.9	50%	71–82	✗
Columbia @ Fordham	+3.2	141.8	61%	78–87	✓
UL Monroe @ App State	+19.5	136.9	96%	55–67	✓
Siena @ Massachusetts	+32.5	145.5	100%	66–79	✓
Quinnipiac @ Florida	+20.2	165.9	97%	72–97	✓
Davidson @ Ohio	-3.9	148.6	36%	72–69	✓
Creighton @ Marquette	+2.4	149.4	58%	67–72	✓
Queens University @ Duke	+27.9	161.7	99%	69–106	✓
Texas State @ James Madison	+17.7	147.0	95%	65–82	✓
Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest	+3.2	144.1	62%	63–86	✓
Central Michigan @ Loyola Chicago	+14.4	143.1	91%	35–73	✓
Saint Peter's @ Bucknell	-0.2	116.9	49%	67–58	✓
Indiana State @ Michigan State	+5.8	149.0	70%	75–87	✓
Howard @ La Salle	+6.9	166.4	74%	71–66	✗
Florida A&M @ South Carolina	+20.7	130.6	97%	62–94	✓
Princeton @ Delaware	-5.0	144.2	33%	84–82	✓
Lehigh @ Marist	+11.6	133.5	85%	65–58	✗
Liberty @ Alabama	+7.5	159.9	75%	56–101	✓
Merrimack @ Boston University	-0.5	123.4	48%	63–74	✗
Iona @ Harvard	+5.4	147.4	69%	69–60	✗
North Carolina A&T @ George Mason	+21.6	147.5	98%	69–94	✓
Troy @ Coastal Carolina	-1.8	162.7	43%	72–65	✓
Arkansas State @ Georgia State	+3.7	143.5	63%	90–91	✓
Longwood @ Dayton	+12.2	136.9	87%	69–78	✓
Le Moyne @ Fairfield	+11.2	146.2	85%	72–78	✓
Gardner-Webb @ VCU	+12.9	134.4	88%	73–87	✓
Alabama A&M @ Georgia	+24.5	151.7	99%	73–93	✓
Abilene Christian @ Western Kentucky	+8.9	151.3	79%	84–86	✓
Southern Miss @ Georgia Southern	-1.1	144.3	46%	67–88	✗
Central Arkansas @ Missouri	+20.1	146.4	97%	59–92	✓
Wichita State @ Kansas	+9.7	144.3	81%	67–86	✓
Colgate @ Cornell	+7.3	153.5	75%	64–77	✓
Chicago State @ DePaul	+5.8	134.0	70%	58–70	✓
Lafayette @ Richmond	+21.7	131.2	98%	38–59	✓
Campbell @ Saint Francis	+0.5	119.3	52%	76–78	✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech	-5.4	161.0	31%	81–73	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Murray State	+6.6	130.6	73%	54–75	✓
Louisiana @ Marshall	-1.9	150.3	43%	61–75	✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ George Washington	+23.1	154.1	98%	63–69	✓
St. Bonaventure @ Akron	-5.0	139.3	32%	62–61	✓
Cal State Northridge @ Long Beach State	+8.4	162.1	78%	84–68	✗
Northern Arizona @ Northern Colorado	+7.5	152.6	75%	77–92	✓
Montana State @ Weber State	+12.7	130.2	88%	64–86	✓
UCLA @ Oregon	+8.9	137.1	79%	59–64	✓
Dartmouth @ Vanderbilt	+7.8	127.1	76%	53–69	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Arkansas	+5.6	151.6	70%	90–106	✓
Florida International @ Utah Tech	+6.9	148.5	74%	92–96	✓
Little Rock @ Tennessee State	+4.8	162.2	67%	82–90	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Davis	+9.0	135.7	79%	46–71	✓
Portland State @ Idaho	-1.6	137.9	44%	77–72	✓
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington	+15.4	146.4	92%	61–87	✓
Wyoming @ BYU	+30.6	149.5	100%	68–94	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ San Francisco	+36.8	123.3	100%	42–92	✓
Montana @ Idaho State	-1.7	140.4	44%	76–68	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.