Oh workers can you stand it, oh tell me how you can? Will you be a lousy scab or will you be a man? "Which Side Are You On?" - Pete Seeger
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–6 on winners spread MAE 10.6 26 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Central Arkansas @ Oklahoma +31.9 143.8 100% 72–88 ✓
Oakland @ Cleveland State +1.9 146.9 57% 67–75 ✓
Coppin State @ Maryland +26.0 120.5 99% 53–75 ✓
UAlbany @ Long Island University -11.4 154.6 15% 86–69 ✓
Sam Houston @ Texas Tech +16.0 142.5 93% 60–96 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ UTSA +0.8 150.5 53% 89–103 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee State +3.7 167.8 63% 91–75 ✗
Little Rock @ Tennessee Tech +0.1 156.4 50% 81–75 ✗
USC @ Oregon +5.8 153.1 70% 74–82 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis -1.2 145.5 46% 62–76 ✗
Montana @ Weber State +5.9 133.1 70% 63–93 ✓
Montana State @ Idaho State +3.5 131.8 62% 74–66 ✗
Sacramento State @ Idaho +8.2 142.0 77% 58–61 ✓
Portland State @ Eastern Washington +0.0 146.5 50% 57–91 ✓
UCLA @ Oregon State -0.8 133.6 47% 69–62 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly -3.1 144.6 39% 83–73 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC San Diego +11.5 130.7 85% 64–76 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Fullerton -2.7 144.0 40% 81–71 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Irvine +17.7 137.5 95% 66–73 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ IU Indianapolis -0.4 138.0 49% 55–67 ✗
Wright State @ Green Bay -1.7 151.7 44% 77–88 ✗
Rider @ Penn State +15.3 150.9 92% 63–90 ✓
Valparaiso @ Elon +6.5 143.7 72% 78–82 ✓
North Florida @ Miami +20.4 155.5 97% 55–95 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Indiana +10.4 164.4 83% 87–100 ✓
Brown @ Stony Brook +5.2 146.7 68% 65–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.