Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | IDST -110 MTST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +8 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -3.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -0.6 (-8.6) | 135.7 (+4.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -2.2 (-10.2) | 137.1 (+2.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -2.1 (-10.1) | 137.5 (+2.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -2.2 (-10.2) | 137.2 (+2.8) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | IDST 91 – 76 MTST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | MTST 74 – 62 IDST |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MTST 80 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTST 74 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | IDST 70 – 67 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-13 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#255) | -4.0 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#295) | -0.84 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#277) | -0.95 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#318) | 0.447 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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