Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.0 Over |
| Money | TNST -190 UTM +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +16 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -3.8 (-19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -1.3 (-17.3) | 157.8 (+8.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -3.5 (-19.5) | 159.7 (+6.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -3.1 (-19.1) | 156.6 (+9.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -3.7 (-19.7) | 158.5 (+7.5) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TNST 68 – 55 UTM |
| Feb 28, 2026 | TNST 67 – 42 UTM |
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNST 78 – 71 UTM |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TNST 86 – 75 UTM |
| Jan 22, 2025 | TNST 81 – 80 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-10 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#236) | -2.8 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#244) | -0.37 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#186) | -0.85 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#243) | 0.493 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 11.6% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.2% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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