Betting Lines
| Spread | ELON -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | ELON -205 VAL +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | ELON -6.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ELON -3.8 (+0.2) | 142.6 (+17.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ELON -5.3 (-1.3) | 140.8 (+19.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ELON -6.2 (-2.2) | 139.9 (+20.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ELON -6.0 (-2.0) | 141.5 (+18.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2022 | VAL 71 – 66 ELON |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-11 |
| Away | 3-11 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#289) | -8.8 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#231) | -1.75 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#245) | -1.99 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#219) | 0.418 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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