Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | VAL -350 ELON +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -7.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -5.7 (-0.7) | 138.6 (-1.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -5.9 (-0.9) | 141.4 (-4.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -6.8 (-1.8) | 140.5 (-3.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -6.1 (-1.1) | 141.8 (-4.8) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2023 | ELON 82 – 78 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-7 | 5-9 |
| Away | 2-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 63.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#319) | -12.1 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#276) | -4.45 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#297) | -6.14 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#319) | 0.314 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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