Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
| Money | UTSA -190 PV +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +14 | 192 | Won |
| Massey | UTSA -1.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+41.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -1.5 (+12.5) | 154.8 (+37.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -2.3 (+11.7) | 147.7 (+44.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -2.0 (+12.0) | 148.6 (+43.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -2.6 (+11.4) | 154.5 (+37.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2022 | UTSA 82 – 75 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-9 | 5-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#305) | -5.7 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#315) | -0.09 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#314) | -0.23 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#343) | 0.494 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 41.3% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 37.6% |
Game Analysis
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